New Delhi, December 11: Manipur is a close fight and the BJP and Congress are locked in a close battle. They are expected to garner 38% and 34% of the vote, respectively, according to the ABP News-CVoter Third Battle for the States Tracker.
The BJP has led Congress consistently, albeit by a narrow margin, according to the Tracker.
Current projections are based on the CVoter Daily Tracking Poll conducted between November 13 and December 9 among adults 18 and older, including likely voters.
Regarding the methodology and details of the survey, the survey reached a total of around 92,000+ people in five states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa). It was carried out by CATI (telephone survey). The same should also have a margin of error of ± 3 to ± 5 percent and did not necessarily take into account all the criteria.
The trend seen so far appears to be crystallizing and the BJP has gained a slight edge over Congress over the Tracker’s previous round. He is currently expected to win a simple majority of 31 seats, while Congress is right behind him with 25 seats. The Naga NPF ethnic party is expected to mop up the remaining 4 seats.
The crystallization of the electoral trend has a lot to do with the polarization along ethnic lines seen in the state. The renewed affirmation of the Naga and the reaction of the Manipuri tribes is the defining characteristic of this election.
In the event that the BJP loses its leanness, or if there is a sudden surge in Congress, we could observe another suspended assembly with the role of kingsmaker incumbent on the NPF. The likelihood of this happening is lower than it was a month ago.
The Manipur poll is important for the BJP to show its continued dominance in northeast India, particularly with the worsening internal security situation casting a shadow over its track record.
A peaceful and progressive Northeast was an important pillar of the BJP’s national message based on security and national assertiveness.